By Kevin Collins
First remember this: Every Republican (even those who don’t like him) is Donald Trump and every Democrat is Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters and Chuck Schumer.
Next keep in mind that both African Americans and Latinos have shown increasing willingness to support President Trump.
In the real world—the one we live in, not the one the liberal media and Democrats live in—for a long time it has been clear that Bob Menendez is going to lose.
First came a crazy poll in June showing Menendez and Republican challenger Bob Hugin both down around 30% with about 40% “undecided” voters.
For Bob Menendez, a guy who is an incumbent in a deep blue state that was a big red flag.
It said the people of New Jersey had seen his act for three years and didn’t much like seeing him walk away with a hung jury in a courthouse in his backyard.
The question was how many of these corruption scared and callused voters, in the most corrupt state in America, would shrug and vote for Menendez anyway.
That was the early question but it is not the question now.
The new question is: Can the hard core of White Democrat and Democrat leaning independent vote be enough to overcome what has to be called The Brown Wave?
When panic sets in people sometimes fall back on “res geste” a legal term to describe the blurted out utterances of stunned and shocked people immediately after receiving a setback.
The New York Times and the New Jersey Democrat structure engaged in some “res geste” talk recently and a careful reading of how it went is very telling.
In the Times piece the Democrats spilled the beans; lots of them.
It told us Republican Hugin said, “If the election were today, I would have won,” and he referred to his own internal poll that showed him up by a small margin.
On the other hand, Menendez’ people said their mid-October internal poll showed him up just two points which got Democrats “increasingly alarmed.”
This was not good news for Menendez.
This caused THE Democrat super PAC to send Menendez $900,000 they were planning to use elsewhere.
Perhaps the biggest “tell” of the piece was the allowance by a blabbing Democrat that they are specifically worried about turnout in North East New Jersey and he even named the counties in which they could foresee trouble.
The demographics of these four counties tells us, the “brave face” official Democrats are putting on in refusing to acknowledge The Brown Wave of African Americans and Latinos who are walking away from the Democrats may be whistling past the graveyard.
Nevertheless, the “on the ground” New Jersey Democrats in the Menendez campaign believe they are in trouble with two of their “always reliable” minorities groups in these counties.
This says they believe The Brown Wave is real.
These four counties are as follows.
Hudson County, which was described by a Democrat operative as “incredibly important,” :14% African American, 43% Latino, and 16% Asian.
Bergen County: 7% African American, 19% Latino, and 17% Asian.
Essex County: 42% African American, 23% Latino, 1% Asian.
Passaic County: 15% African American; 41% Latino and trace Asian.
We know that African American support for Donald Trump has risen to a modern record of 40% and Latino support for Trump is at 45%.
In several key states like Florida, Texas and California Latinos have shown they are no longer automatic Democrat supporters.
In Maryland African American support for Trump has transferred to a White Republican governor getting 21% of African American support in his defense of his seat against a Black former head of the NAACP.
If there is a drop off of participation or even a small switch of allegiance by The Brown Wave in even just one or two of these, “incredibly important” Democrat counties, Menendez will lose.