By Kevin Collins
First I say again: DO NOT BE GASLIGHTED BY FAKE POLLS.
The ground under Democrats’ feet is turning to quick sand in many parts of the country.
Don’t be fooled and DON’T GO TO THE DRUDGE REPORT.
He purposely puts up psy-ops articles to help his side.
This preamble applies to every gubernatorial election.
To streamline the discussion of the gubernatorial races featured in this report please read these following paragraphs as the first part of the report on each race.
The Republicans have very wisely nationalized this election so all of their candidates are Donald Trump and all Democrat candidates are Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Maxine Waters rolled up into one.
The Republicans have already started to run TV spots directly saying this and nothing will change that fact.
Consequently, the first thing that must be acknowledged in considering who will win a 2018 mid-term election is that the real Republican candidate in each race is Donald Trump.
The power of the avalanche of accomplishments Trump brings to the campaign trail will be more than many Democrats, whether incumbents or challengers, will be able to fight off.
If you want to only read propaganda polls and Democrat prognostications don’t bother reading any further.
That said, here are a few gubernatorial elections that should be watched as possible Party to Party flips.
The reason for the Democrat gubernatorial woes include lots of easily identifiable problems.
The nation’s Catholics and Evangelicals are furious over the treatment of Justice Kavanaugh and his family by Democrats and they are eager to punish all Democrats at the polls.
Both groups are well satisfied with Trump’s appointment of Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
Both groups voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again.
These factors will present a major obstacle for Democrat candidates because their party tried to destroy Brett Kavanaugh.
Democrat candidates have a problem with independent voters.
CNN released the findings of its survey of independent voters and found by 64/36 they disapprove of the Democrats’ handling of Judge Kavanaugh.
An example of the ‘independent’ effect on polling is essay to find in Maryland’s gubernatorial race.
Maryland’s registered voters include 18% independents who voted.
Independent voters are now supporting White Republican, incumbent Governor Larry Hogan’s bid for re-election 52/25 with 23% saying they are undecided.
Hogan is being challenged by a Black former head of the NAACP, but that is turning out to mean nothing.
The Black and Hispanic population in each state will be important factors in who wins and who loses.
Hogan is also getting 21% of the Black vote which strongly suggests that the steadily rising approval rating of African Americans for Trump is transferring to Republican candidates even when a White Republican is running against a Black Democrat.
Note: Hogan is not even known as a particular supporter of Trump.
At 35% (Rasmussen) African American support for Trump is at its highest point and has grown from 23% since this time last year.
Latinos are moving toward Republicans as well.
There is strong evidence of this from Florida (27%) where the Republican gubernatorial candidate is +11 with Hispanics in a leftist poll.
Remember the only polls that are honest are polls showing Republicans with big leads overall or with a particular subgroup; because if they could possibly cast the Republican as losing they would do it.
In Texas a special election was won by a Republican who lost a race for the same seat in 2016 by 15 points.
He won in the district which has been in Democrat hands for 139 years.
The district is coterminous with a US House seat originally marked as a “tossup” but the Republican now leads by 18 points.
The district is 68% Hispanic.
In California (32% Hispanic) the Democrat running for governor is just + 1 at 35/34 with 30% undecided among Hispanics.
This data alone puts all Democrat candidates in a tough position.
Blacks, Hispanics, Catholics and Evangelicals believed candidate Trump’s promises and he has fulfilled them beyond what they could have hoped for.
These factors will present a major obstacle for any Democrat running this year.
There are currently 16 Democrat governors 1 Independent governor and 33 Republican governors.
There will be 38 governor’s races this year.
Publicly available data shows Republicans will pick up Alaska, the one independent governorship.
That will move the Republican number to 34 seats.
There are three seats that the Republicans have a better than even chance of picking up.
They are California Minnesota and Oregon.
This will not be a business as usual election year in California.
The Republican is down just 5 points and down just 35/34 with Hispanics who make up 39% of the state.
The Hispanic Shift in allegiance toward the Republicans will be felt in California because of the Hispanic vote.
California is a Republican pickup.
Oregon is almost as much of a dead issue as for Democrats as Maryland is.
Oregon’s Democrats have surrendered Portland, the state’s largest city, to Antifa who have made it their capital city.
Antifa is now even directing traffic in Portland and regularly physically fighting ICE and the Portland cops in the town’s streets.
When a real poll was taken in June the Republican jumped 17 points to a one point lead. Forget the “polls” that have “fixed” that “problem.”
There is an anti-sanctuary city amendment on the ballot.
Oregon is a Republican pickup.
In a statewide race in Minnesota, the number of Blacks (6%) and Hispanics (5%) will be only a small factor.
Nevertheless, Republicans will greatly benefit from Minnesota’s energized Catholics (25%) and Evangelicals (25%) both of whom are furious over the treatment of Justice Kavanaugh.
Independents who are 2 to 1 angry at Democrats over Kavanaugh, will control who wins.
A CNN survey found that by 64/36 independents are angry over the treatment Kavanaugh got at the hands of Democrat Senators.
In Minnesota 28% of voters are independents.
Minnesota is a Republican pick up.
With pickups in California Oregon and Minnesota the Republican number moves to 37 seats.
Maine looks like a Democrat pick up.
That would move the Republican number down to 36 seats.
There are two more contested Democrat seats: Connecticut and Pennsylvania that are real tossups which will be decided by how strong the coming red wave hits each state.
Nevertheless, available data points to a Democrat hold in Connecticut.
The same data says Pennsylvania is winnable for the Republicans.
Remember this is a statewide race so new Congressional districts don’t mean as much as with House elections.
On the other side of the list, the Republicans’ hold on Illinois looks like it is gone.
New Mexico is a Republican held state that is a true “tossup.”
But New Mexico is a state that can easily be held on the Republican side.
The very large Hispanic population (48%) makes it a better than even bet that the Republicans hold the seat given the sharp Latino swing to the Republicans that has become clear in recent weeks and days.
Trump flipped 3 pivot counties in New Mexico, even while losing by 9 points.
Pivot counties are those won by Obama twice then won by Trump.
The three counties have an average Hispanic population of 55% which is even larger than the 48% for the state.
This race is only a “leans Democrat” to the “experts.”
It is very winnable for the Republicans.
So the final governor count looks like 35 to 37 for Republicans.
This will be very important when the census is taken and redistricting gets under way.